2.4.4 Deterioration models for lifecycle planning

The ability of an organization to develop performance models and model asset deterioration will support the advancement of its approach to lifecycle planning. These models have the capability to predict modes of deterioration and/or failure of the proposed treatment, as well as when the next intervention (the time for the asset to reach the end of its serviceable life) will occur. The approach can be advanced and highly complex approach or simple, depending on the capability of the organization. Two approaches to deterioration may be considered:

Service Life: This describes the life expectancy from construction to the next structural intervention based on industry best practice and local knowledge. This may vary according to traffic or environmental conditions. An organization’s own records of material performance should be a good reference.

Performance modelling: Deterioration profiles for an asset can be determined from a variety of sources, including historical performance, local knowledge, and best practice. Some organizations have developed bespoke deterioration profiles. These can be used for lifecycle planning with more sophisticated approaches to decision support. They will require a significant amount of data and potential calibration, which may be a complex and time consuming activity. These models may be part of the decision support component of the asset management tools (see section 4.1).